Down With Brett Favre and the Green Bay Packers! Chant it!!!!!!!!!

UPDATE: If you don't have the NFL Network, try this to watch the game. Good luck. I hope it works for all of you screwed over by the NFL and the cable companies.

OK Dallas Cowboys fans, here we go. We are less than 90 minutes away from kick off for what is the biggest game for the NFC so far this year.

Both teams are 10-1, a match-up made in heaven. The aging Brett Favre is having one of his best seasons, while Tony Romo is devouring the Cowboys record book.

How do I see this game playing out? I won't sway from my last post: I do think Dallas will win tonight, and I also think they can dominate this Packers team. Will they? I won't be surprised if they do, but I see the game close until the middle of the fourth quarter, when Dallas pulls away with a touchdown and wins by 10 points. I think rookie kicker Nick Folk will be faced with at least one 50-plus yard kick, which he will make to put the Cowboys ahead at half time.

As I said before, Favre will lose this game for the Packers. He will try too hard and turn over the ball at a key moment in this game. Not to mention, Dallas has a superior running game, and I expect the coaches will use the Julius Jones-Marion Barber duo possibly more than they have all season. Thirty carries total? Maybe.

Let's look at some statistics:
1. Green Bay has allowed a lot less points, nearly a touchdown a game less. But they have also played far worse offensive teams like Minnesota and Chicago, their only loss of the season.
2. Favre has a better completion rate, 300 more yards and five less interceptions than Romo, who threw five in one game. But Romo has a whopping seven more touchdowns than Favre, and he has already broken the single-season TD record for the Cowboys.
3. The Packer rushing game has nothing on Dallas.

Green Bay Rushing
	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD
Grant	107	494	4.6	2
Wynn	50	203	4.1	4

Dallas Rushing
	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD
Barber	145	715	4.9	7
Jones	124	495	4.0	2

4. Jason Witten has almost as many catches and yards as Donald Driver, the top receiver for the packers. Get real. Witten is going to have a huge game. Terrell Owens is blowing them all out of the water, with already over 1000 yards and 13 touchdowns, tying what he had last year.

Green Bay Receiving
	REC	YDS	AVG	TD
Driver	63	832	13.2	2
Jennin...	39	625	16.0	9

Dallas Receiving
	REC	YDS	AVG	TD
Owens	64	1093	17.1	13
Witten	59	750	12.7	6

Offensively, statistics show we are very close outside of rushing the ball, where the Cowboys hold a distinct edge. Again, I think we will run the ball very well today and more than 30 times. No reason to get into a passing battle with Favre. On defense, Dallas has given up slightly less yards per game. In fact, the defenses, statistically, are nearly identical until you get to one category: rushing. Dallas has shut down the running game for opposing teams, giving up less than 100 yards per game. Green Bay, however, is right at the century mark for opposing teams' rushing. That's good news for Dallas.

Here are the full statistics:

TEAM AVERAGES & NFL RANKS
TEAM OFFENSE	TEAM	PER GAME AVERAGE
Total Yards	GNB	380.0
	DAL	389.0
Yards Passing	GNB	298.5
	DAL	265.9
Yards Rushing	GNB	81.8
	DAL	122.9
TEAM DEFENSE	TEAM	PER GAME AVERAGE
Yards Allowed	GNB	315.4
	DAL	299.1
Pass Yds Allowed	GNB	215.3
	DAL	217.0
Rush Yds Allowed	GNB	100.1
	DAL	82.1

The only concern I have is the secondary, and namely Roy Williams. Favre is doing a lot of dump passes and slants for 10-yard gains. This is where Roy has trouble. I think all Cowboys fans are concerned about this and the big pass play. However, Williams has to show up sooner or later, and this is the game to do it. I expect him to play well, possibly even intercept one of those slants if he watched the film this week.

I am so pumped up for this game I can barely breathe. I had to skip the gym today because I didn't eat anything and I was too overwhelmed. I finally ate, and now it's time to drink some beer.

For the first time this year, sadly, I won't be able to live blog. I have to watch this game at a friend's house because I don't get the NFL Network since Comcast took it off the basic cable lineup. I don't even want to get into it, but hey, I cannot complain too much: My friend has a big-screen HD television. Plus, he apparently bought the beer!!!

Free Agent Chatter

When this season ends, the Cowboys will be faced with 15 players who could end up gone for the next season. Of those players, several are very important to the future success of this team. As I review the players on this list, we will see how the Dallas Cowboys could change quite a bit next season.

Some may be expendable. Some are certainly not!

Let's look at unrestricted free agents first: Offensive Tackle Flozell Adams, WR Patrick Crayton, Free Safety Ken Hamlin, Running Back Julius Jones, CB Jacques Reeves, DB Keith Davis and DB Nate Jones.

I think Ken Hamlin, Flozell Adams and Patrick Crayton need to be resigned and not because they are great for betting online. If anyone could have been used as trade bait this year it was Adams. But it would have impacted out offensive line too much, and he is playing great this year despite his common false start penalties. Hamlin is in his first year as a Cowboy and has proven to be a valuable free safety, an actual surprise. Crayton has been a terrific fill in for the injured Terry Glenn. Reeves, Davis and Jones may be too valuable only because we are so weak at corner backs.

Other recognizable restricted free agents are Jay Ratliff. He deserves a contract, but he may be expendable if we keep Tank Johnson. It's also mentionable that Chris Canty may be on the restricted free agency list, too, because of his contract clauses.

Which brings us to Julius Jones. Do we sign him or let some other team bid on him? Frankly, I don't know what team would want him. Packers? Texans? Broncos? Who knows. Julius, in my opinion, hasn't become the back I expected him to be. After the Emmitt Smith years, any back we pick in the first two rounds better wear the Star with pride. JJ doesn't bring it every game.

But the decision to lose him could be a huge factor for 2009 because that means we will either look for a new running back in the draft or make Marion Barber the sole runner for this offense.

But hold on. MB3 is a restricted free agent. This means teams can bid on MB3 but the Cowboys have seven days to match any offers. This could make for a crazy offseason, unless we sign him now. It is possible that MB3 may be used as trade bait for this offseason to collect additional picks.

Our backfield could be completely changed this offseason. Could we really lose Marion the Barbarian? I hope not.

The Marion Barber III argument

When you look at the numbers from last night's game, one could say that Marion Barber and Julius Jones are equal. Jones rushed 16 times for 66 yards, with a longest run of 21 yards.

Barber ran 11 times for 65 yards, and scored one touchdown. His longest run was 19 yards.

But stats don't show heart. Stats don't show effort. And stats certainly don't tell strength. Barber was the stronger back last night. His acrobatic touchdown run was amazing. He broke tackles. He ran over the opposing defense. He ran aggressively and pumped up the team.

Julius Jones, on the other hand, fell down too easily. He didn't break away from tacklers. While trying to run the clock out, he takes an up-the-middle run and turns it outside to avoid tacklers, but then runs out of bounds, which stopped the clock. Fans on message boards starting calling him "Julia." His runs seemed mediocre, at best. That might be overstated. He looked poor. But I am comparing him to Barber, who in my opinion, is the better runner.

The two-back system in Dallas should be scrapped now. Marion Barber should become the full-time back for the Dallas Cowboys immediately. Barber has carried the ball 273 times in the last two seasons for 1192 yards and an amazing 19 touchdowns. That is what we could expect from Barber running full-time for the Dallas Cowboys. We'd probably get more from him if he knew he was our sole back, or should I say "soul" back. Just for comparison, Larry Johnson ran the ball 416 times last year and 336 times in 2005, far more carries than Barber has had in just two seasons.

Julius Jones ran the ball last year almost as much as Barber has in his entire career. Jones ran 267 times, for 1084 yards and 4 touchdowns. Hardly an elite back. Hardly comparable to those of Barber.

But stats don't show effort, right? Stats don't show heart?

Well, playing on the field and performance does show effort and heart. We, the fans, can see it. And I'd love to have one person argue to me that Julius Jones deserves to start for the Dallas Cowboys, how he deserves a majority of the runs, and how he deserves to start the game and run the ball during the most important part of the game: when Dallas is down. Barber has shown time and time again that he's a stronger back, has more heart, and plays harder than his counterpart.

When will the coaches in Dallas recognize this? Hopefully by Sunday.

Happy 4th. Boring Day in the NFL?

I couldn't sleep right now if I wanted to. The bangs and booms have been consistent since 6 p.m. Oh well, it is Fourth of July, but I am sure the din of fireworks will continue for the rest of the week and probably into next week.

I scoured the Dallas Cowboys blogs all day searching for something to write about. It was a dull day today. The Larry Johnson chatter is probably the hottest of the bits. A few forums discussed it and it appeared many Dallas fans approve of a trade for Larry Johnson. I don't. He's just got too much wear and tear. The Chiefs overused him because the rest of the offense was pitiful and the result is Larry Johnson's career can be measured more in dog years. The guy has three years or less left in him as a top back. And that's with the chiefs. Keep him there.

There is also talk about Dallas getting Arkansas' Darren McFadden next year. We have Cleveland's first round pick in 2008. The guy rushed for 1600 yards, 14 TDs last year, with an incredible 5.8 yards per carry. In other words, this guy gets first downs every two runs.

I doubt Cleveland will be a top 3 pick, I just doubt it. But you never know. I think the Browns can win at least six games and that will probably make them a 6th pick. McFadden won't be there. Why would any of us even think about this right now? McFadden very well could be the top pick in the draft next year.

I won't hold my breath. But if we have a chance to get McFadden, I say do it. Although I like Julius Jones, he's disappointed us more than he has blown us away. His brother is better. But with Barber, it was a decent one-two punch that helped us win games. If we got McFadden, we'd go back to a one back system and probably lose both Jones and Barber by 2009.

Is that what we want?

Does the two-back system work?

I read a fantasy report from ESPN's Neil Ravitz today that sort of led me to question whether the two-back system in Dallas works. You can read the piece here.

I personally thought that the Jones-Barber duo worked. There were times I was really annoyed at the short gains but I put most of the blame on the offensive line. Of course Ravitz takes a fantasy football spin to his synopsis and it doesn't work. Fantasy sports is a whole lot different than reality. In Fantasy NFL, Barber was a steal. Most people probably snagged him from the free agent wire in the first or second week. But, he was a role player, getting the ball often in red-zone situations. Parcells tried to use Jones as a finesse back and it didn't work all the time. I thought Jones heated up near the end of the season and he had a great game against the Seahawks.

Ravitz says:

"Last season, Jones averaged 4.1 yards per carry, while Barber's YPC was 4.8. That's a glaring difference, and not just for the obvious reasons. Barber actually had a handicap in this category because he received more carries in short-yardage situations. In fact, if you remove just the touchdowns from three yards out and in, Barber's YPC swells to 5.1, and Jones' ... well, he didn't score any short-yardage touchdowns."

The yards per carry is a significant stat to review. A 4.1 average isn't bad. But Ravitz argues that Barber is a better, more complete running back than Jones. I don't know about this. I think Barber and Jones compliment each other. They never seemed to be performing at high levels at the same time. I wouldn't be shocked if one were traded at some point. I'd have a hard time watching either go to another team. I do like them both and Barber is a favorite of mine.
I just think we need both to win this year and future years.

A balanced offense wins games; Tank Johnson talks make me sick

It's been said that a balanced offense--running and passing an equal amount during a game--helps win ball games because your offense is less predictable to defenses. There's a reason Detroit can't win games and that's because the offense passed 66 percent of the time. Defenses knew that two out of three plays were going to passes. And because their running offense was horrible, we can figure out why Detroit blew it once again.

But Dallas is different. The offense passed 52 percent of the time and ran 48 percent of the time. Julius Jones and Marion Barber were effective, running for 120 yard total each game and averaged 4 yards per carry. The offense ranked third with 21 rushing touchdowns. Not bad.

A balanced offense doesn't guarantee wins, as Washington proved. But that team was so woeful last year that I am not sure anyone could have helped them win. Just bad chemistry and a horrible owner, one of the worst in the NFL.

I see Dallas' offense improving. Tony Romo will be more settled and I think Julius Jones will have a 1,000-plus yard season.

On a separate note, there is a lot of talk about Tank Johnson becoming a Cowboy. Of course, all of the Cowboy haters are licking their chops about this, making the same old bogus comments about how Dallas chooses talent over character. I don't think character is much of a factor for any team in the NFL until a player goes off the deep end, ala Tank Johnson and PacMan Jones. And the result of these bad character players is they got dropped or suspended. But everyone deserves a second chance.

With that said, I am not sure I want Tank Johnson or his drama. Sure, the guy could come in and immediately help our team and never get in trouble again. But history says something different and I prefer to keep our chemistry intact.